Post by jamiebez on May 27, 2005 8:53:44 GMT -5
www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20050527/RCITIES27/TPBusiness/?query=CIBC
Being in the cellar of a 25-team league is not a happy position.
So it's no surprise that Mayor Lynn Peterson of Thunder Bay was not exactly delighted to learn yesterday that her Northern Ontario community has come dead last in a new index created by CIBC World Markets Inc. to measure changing levels of economic activity in Canada's 25 largest cities -- or census metropolitan areas (CMAs) to be more precise.
Topping the CIBCWM Metropolitan Economic Activity Index -- and beating out such higher profile and much larger growth hot spots as Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton -- were the Kitchener, Ont., area, powered by its high-technology base, and Saskatoon, which gained great traction from a nation-leading 9.2 per cent year-over-year employment gain.
Thunder Bay scored a miserable minus 3 on the index, which was compiled by CIBC senior economist Benjamin Tal, based on year-over-year changes in eight key macroeconomic variables ranging from population and employment through bankruptcy statistics to house prices. By contrast, Kitchener scored plus 11.3, and Saskatoon came in at 10.5.
"I have a concern about [the] data," Ms. Peterson said, in particular querying the population figures Mr. Tal used. But she also said that while Southern Ontario may be booming, times are tough in her neck of the woods. "I think that you'll find a lot of northern communities, unlike the boom in large urban centres, [are undergoing] an out-migration issue."
Above all, she said, the forestry industry is hurting, courtesy of the softwood lumber dispute with the United States, the high Canadian dollar and rising energy costs. "When the forestry industry is hurting, it shows."
Mr. Tal's figures reveal, among other things, that Thunder Bay's population dipped by about 0.2 per cent year over year in the first quarter, that employment declined 2.7 per cent and that although housing starts rose by nearly 40 per cent -- second highest on the index -- house sales and prices fell.
Still, in an interview, the economist emphasized that his new index measures the rate of change rather than the level of economic activity and said that the worst may already be over for Thunder Bay. Its index reading hit rock bottom at minus 4.6 six months ago, he said. "In fact, it is recovering now a little bit."
The picture was, of course, much brighter in Kitchener. "It's gratifying in the sense that it validates the kind of direction we have been trying to take here within the Kitchener CMA," Mayor Carl Zehr said.
Mr. Tal cited Kitchener's "strong and dynamic high-tech sector" as likely being "an important engine" of its performance, which reflected above average growth in population and employment, a strong resale housing market and above average improvement in business and personal bankruptcies.
Mr. Zehr concurred, citing an estimate that the Kitchener region now accounts for about one quarter of all technology start-up companies in Canada. He added that he thinks even though Kitchener has grown to be "a fairly large community," it still has the sort of strong "work ethic" more readily associated with smaller towns.
Calgary, which ranked 10th on the index with a score of plus 7.7, led in population growth with a year over year increase of about 2 per cent, just edging out Toronto, which ranked fourth overall on the index with a score of 9.2.
Meanwhile, Saint John ranked No. 1 in terms of the increase in full-time jobs' share of total employment, which Mr. Tal is using in the index to approximate improvements in labour quality. It edged out Calgary, Toronto, Montreal and Kitchener.
Trois-Rivières, Que., suffered the largest jump in business bankruptcies, while Greater Sudbury, Ont., endured the sharpest spike in consumers going bust.
Cities' pulse
The CIBC World Markets Metropolitan Economic Activity Index, developed by CIBC senior economist Benjamin Tal, is designed to capture the rate of change in economic activity in Canada's 25 largest cities based on 8 key macroeconomic variables.
CIBC's eight key macroeconomic variables: Population growth, employment growth, unemployment rate, full-time share in total employment, personal bankruptcy rate, business bankruptcy rate, housing starts and MLS housing resales.
Kitchener: 11.3
Saskatoon: 10.5
Sherbrooke: 9.7
Toronto: 9.2
Quebec City: 8.6
Winnipeg: 8.3
Sudbury: 8.2
Edmonton: 7.9
Regina: 7.9
Calgary: 7.7
Hamilton: 7.5
St. Catharines: 7.4
Montreal: 7.2
Halifax: 7.2
Vancouver: 7.0
Trois-Rivières: 6.9
Saint John: 6.6
Victoria: 6.5
London: 6.1
St. John's: 6.0
Saguenay: 5.8
Ottawa: 4.7
Kingston: 2.1
Windsor: -0.4
Thunder Bay: -3.0
Being in the cellar of a 25-team league is not a happy position.
So it's no surprise that Mayor Lynn Peterson of Thunder Bay was not exactly delighted to learn yesterday that her Northern Ontario community has come dead last in a new index created by CIBC World Markets Inc. to measure changing levels of economic activity in Canada's 25 largest cities -- or census metropolitan areas (CMAs) to be more precise.
Topping the CIBCWM Metropolitan Economic Activity Index -- and beating out such higher profile and much larger growth hot spots as Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton -- were the Kitchener, Ont., area, powered by its high-technology base, and Saskatoon, which gained great traction from a nation-leading 9.2 per cent year-over-year employment gain.
Thunder Bay scored a miserable minus 3 on the index, which was compiled by CIBC senior economist Benjamin Tal, based on year-over-year changes in eight key macroeconomic variables ranging from population and employment through bankruptcy statistics to house prices. By contrast, Kitchener scored plus 11.3, and Saskatoon came in at 10.5.
"I have a concern about [the] data," Ms. Peterson said, in particular querying the population figures Mr. Tal used. But she also said that while Southern Ontario may be booming, times are tough in her neck of the woods. "I think that you'll find a lot of northern communities, unlike the boom in large urban centres, [are undergoing] an out-migration issue."
Above all, she said, the forestry industry is hurting, courtesy of the softwood lumber dispute with the United States, the high Canadian dollar and rising energy costs. "When the forestry industry is hurting, it shows."
Mr. Tal's figures reveal, among other things, that Thunder Bay's population dipped by about 0.2 per cent year over year in the first quarter, that employment declined 2.7 per cent and that although housing starts rose by nearly 40 per cent -- second highest on the index -- house sales and prices fell.
Still, in an interview, the economist emphasized that his new index measures the rate of change rather than the level of economic activity and said that the worst may already be over for Thunder Bay. Its index reading hit rock bottom at minus 4.6 six months ago, he said. "In fact, it is recovering now a little bit."
The picture was, of course, much brighter in Kitchener. "It's gratifying in the sense that it validates the kind of direction we have been trying to take here within the Kitchener CMA," Mayor Carl Zehr said.
Mr. Tal cited Kitchener's "strong and dynamic high-tech sector" as likely being "an important engine" of its performance, which reflected above average growth in population and employment, a strong resale housing market and above average improvement in business and personal bankruptcies.
Mr. Zehr concurred, citing an estimate that the Kitchener region now accounts for about one quarter of all technology start-up companies in Canada. He added that he thinks even though Kitchener has grown to be "a fairly large community," it still has the sort of strong "work ethic" more readily associated with smaller towns.
Calgary, which ranked 10th on the index with a score of plus 7.7, led in population growth with a year over year increase of about 2 per cent, just edging out Toronto, which ranked fourth overall on the index with a score of 9.2.
Meanwhile, Saint John ranked No. 1 in terms of the increase in full-time jobs' share of total employment, which Mr. Tal is using in the index to approximate improvements in labour quality. It edged out Calgary, Toronto, Montreal and Kitchener.
Trois-Rivières, Que., suffered the largest jump in business bankruptcies, while Greater Sudbury, Ont., endured the sharpest spike in consumers going bust.
Cities' pulse
The CIBC World Markets Metropolitan Economic Activity Index, developed by CIBC senior economist Benjamin Tal, is designed to capture the rate of change in economic activity in Canada's 25 largest cities based on 8 key macroeconomic variables.
CIBC's eight key macroeconomic variables: Population growth, employment growth, unemployment rate, full-time share in total employment, personal bankruptcy rate, business bankruptcy rate, housing starts and MLS housing resales.
Kitchener: 11.3
Saskatoon: 10.5
Sherbrooke: 9.7
Toronto: 9.2
Quebec City: 8.6
Winnipeg: 8.3
Sudbury: 8.2
Edmonton: 7.9
Regina: 7.9
Calgary: 7.7
Hamilton: 7.5
St. Catharines: 7.4
Montreal: 7.2
Halifax: 7.2
Vancouver: 7.0
Trois-Rivières: 6.9
Saint John: 6.6
Victoria: 6.5
London: 6.1
St. John's: 6.0
Saguenay: 5.8
Ottawa: 4.7
Kingston: 2.1
Windsor: -0.4
Thunder Bay: -3.0