Post by Ducky on Jan 30, 2005 18:20:12 GMT -5
I think this guy is bang on his predictions, though I think there will be a severe luxury tax implemented
----------------------------------------
Crystal Puck
by Jason Nacci
What would the NHL look like if Bettman and the owners get their $31 million salary cap?
The year is 2007. The NHL has its hard cap. So, what do things look like? How many teams are left? Most importantly, how did we get here?
Here is how it went down:
The lockout dragged on through the spring of '05. Bettman and the owners proved false any notion that they were bluffing. The 150 or so players that were left in North America to answer Union roll call remained doggedly loyal and determined to trust the judgment of their player reps and boss Goodenow. Both sides believed that to make the next offer would be a sign of capitulation. Talks did not happen. The stare-down continued.
As for the question of the draft for '05 ... once it was apparent that there would be no '04-'05 season, it was agreed that the draft age minimum would be raised to 19. Crosby would have to spend another year in the minors. After skipping a beat, things would hopefully be back on track for the '06 draft.
The slow of leak of NHLers heading to Europe also continued. Some weren't coming back. Swedes playing in Sweden, Fins playing in Finland, Czechs, and Slovaks ... they were back home, their kids were in schools, homes purchased and once again they were making money (not as big as potential NHL money, but still better than not getting paid at all). Even young Canadian and American players without families were happy to take a prolonged European vacation and get paid for it.
But back home in NHL territory, the few players that remained were squirming uncomfortably. They were beginning to see that nothing positive was resulting from the Goodenow versus Bettman battle of wills. With a dwindling number of "ready-to-picket" union members on North American soil, with public opinion not turning for the players and with the '05-'06 season suddenly in jeopardy, there again began to appear breaks in the player ranks.
Early in the summer of '05 the NHL announced an impasse and that it would be open for business in the fall with the Union's participation or not. This meant replacement players. Most NHL fans applauded this announcement. The Union claimed unfair labor practices and took the NHL to court.
At the same time the European super league was announced. There would be eight teams in six countries with enough wealthy ownership to offer NHL caliber salaries to draw the best hockey players in the world. It would be an all-star league that would pay out big salaries, draw curious fans, disrupt current European leagues, and bring about a new migration of NHLPA members to Europe.
Despite this, and despite the court case with the union, NHL training camp opened as promised. No PA members crossed the picket lines initially because there were no actual picket lines. With less than seventy unemployed Union members left and none rushing back to North America to challenge the legitimacy of the replacement players, NHL camps and pre-season games ran smoothly. It was a little surreal.
Labor laws got in the way in Canada. In the provinces of British Columbia and Quebec, it was illegal for replacement "workers" to take the jobs of union members. If changes weren't made the Canadiens announced they would play their games in Halifax and Hamilton. Likewise, the Canucks said they would simply move their operation to Seattle, the home of one of their owners. In Quebec, labor laws were immediately amended to exclude non-essential public services. Les Bleu, Blanc et Rouge would play only in Montreal. Though a few weeks of games were played in Seattle and Everett, the BC government made similar changes, with special sports industry exclusions eventually being written into their labor laws.
In September of 2005, a week before the regular season started, three important things happened:
First, a handful of PA members crossed the non-existent picket lines. If nothing else, this was the first sign that the dam was crumbling.
Second, a new, "temporary" player's association was hastily formed and it agreed to the owner's request for a $31 million salary cap. Other details included more ownership friendly rules regarding free agency and qualifying offers. The unrestricted free agency age remained at 31. A salary minimum of $12 million was set.
Third, the judge threw out the Union's antitrust case against the NHL. It was decided that the NHL had given the PA enough to work with given that there were six different CBA proposals. It was also pointed out that the Union didn't have a righteous leg to stand on considering 85% of its members were off playing in other leagues, many of which had salary caps systems. The ruling stunned the hockey world and the loyal NHLPA members waited to see what its leaders' next move was. Would there be an appeal?
However the floodgates had opened and each day in October saw two or three players crossing over and joining their teams. By the middle of the month, Bob Goodenow had resigned and the old Union fell apart like a house of cards. There would be the fallout of animosity between certain players polluting NHL locker rooms for years to come. Other players, out of spite for the Bettman and the owners, would vow to never play for the NHL again and would retire or finish their careers in Europe. And of course, of the large group that went to play in Europe in '04, many never returned.
There was a two-year grace period for teams to get under the $31 million cap. However, with players coming back to their teams, right away owners were trying to buy their way out of longer termed pre-lockout deals they had signed with high-priced players. Though buying out a huge contract was the lesser of two evils, it was still evil. Some franchises would need several years to recover from their efforts to get themselves under the cap.
After the first couple weeks of the season an ugly truth was revealed. Less than casual hockey fans that were there for the novelty had artificially swelled the NHL rinks. The truth was that season tickets sales were a quarter of what they had been pre-lockout. Many of the hard core fans were still bitter over the lost NHL season and had found other things to spend their leisure time and money on. For teams it was all about getting fans to buy tickets on a game to game basis. Ticket prices were slashed, layoffs occurred and team owners complained while GM's and team presidents worried about their bottom lines.
As the NHL season progressed, it became clear that the game's image had suffered irreparably in the United States. Hockey had fallen out of the big four. It was now eighth in TV ratings behind arena football, NASCAR, golf and Texas hold 'em.
For some franchises, the game attendance slowly recovered. In others, it slowly got worse. By the end of the season there were four teams that were in desperate trouble financially. The owners wanted no part of the new look NHL and wanted out. Two of them declared bankruptcy. With no chance of new owners stepping forward to purchase these franchises, the NHL was forced to buy these teams out. With revenue (and loss) sharing, it was in the best interest of the league and the other 26 owners to cull the herd. Three franchises were folded and the NHL would try to save the fourth and run it for the '06-'07 season. The value of these teams were much less than their pre-lockout worth, but this massive contraction cost the league most of what was leftover from its $300 million lockout war chest.
In '06-'07, two more teams would be in desperate financial trouble. The league itself was on thin ice financially. They were in a critical phase of their rebuilding. They couldn't afford the financial burden and public embarrassment of folding more teams. So in the spring of '07, pitchmen were hired and the search began for new owners. With the average worth of the NHL franchises at about 60% of what they had been only six months earlier, there was the possibility that buyers could be found.
A lot of noise was being made by hockey fans in Quebec City and Winnipeg, two cities that lost their teams in the mid 90's. They wanted to be NHL cities again and there were massive public rallies urging on potential ownership groups. By the summer, when the dust had settled, one more team had been contracted, while a Quebec City ownership group had bought the other. The Winnipeg ownership group bought the team that the NHL had been running.
Franchises were worth less, players made less money and teams had to work hard to bring fans back to the game. The result was ticket prices that were less than what they had been four years prior. Every now and then, however, an old NHL player would humbly return from his European exodus to rejoin the party ... and fans would rejoice at the site of a familiar face in a familiar jersey.
And, with exciting young superstars Eric Fehr, Alex Ovechkin, Gilbert Brule and Sidney Crosby leading the charge, the NHL's rebuilding process was well under way.
----------------------------------------
Crystal Puck
by Jason Nacci
What would the NHL look like if Bettman and the owners get their $31 million salary cap?
The year is 2007. The NHL has its hard cap. So, what do things look like? How many teams are left? Most importantly, how did we get here?
Here is how it went down:
The lockout dragged on through the spring of '05. Bettman and the owners proved false any notion that they were bluffing. The 150 or so players that were left in North America to answer Union roll call remained doggedly loyal and determined to trust the judgment of their player reps and boss Goodenow. Both sides believed that to make the next offer would be a sign of capitulation. Talks did not happen. The stare-down continued.
As for the question of the draft for '05 ... once it was apparent that there would be no '04-'05 season, it was agreed that the draft age minimum would be raised to 19. Crosby would have to spend another year in the minors. After skipping a beat, things would hopefully be back on track for the '06 draft.
The slow of leak of NHLers heading to Europe also continued. Some weren't coming back. Swedes playing in Sweden, Fins playing in Finland, Czechs, and Slovaks ... they were back home, their kids were in schools, homes purchased and once again they were making money (not as big as potential NHL money, but still better than not getting paid at all). Even young Canadian and American players without families were happy to take a prolonged European vacation and get paid for it.
But back home in NHL territory, the few players that remained were squirming uncomfortably. They were beginning to see that nothing positive was resulting from the Goodenow versus Bettman battle of wills. With a dwindling number of "ready-to-picket" union members on North American soil, with public opinion not turning for the players and with the '05-'06 season suddenly in jeopardy, there again began to appear breaks in the player ranks.
Early in the summer of '05 the NHL announced an impasse and that it would be open for business in the fall with the Union's participation or not. This meant replacement players. Most NHL fans applauded this announcement. The Union claimed unfair labor practices and took the NHL to court.
At the same time the European super league was announced. There would be eight teams in six countries with enough wealthy ownership to offer NHL caliber salaries to draw the best hockey players in the world. It would be an all-star league that would pay out big salaries, draw curious fans, disrupt current European leagues, and bring about a new migration of NHLPA members to Europe.
Despite this, and despite the court case with the union, NHL training camp opened as promised. No PA members crossed the picket lines initially because there were no actual picket lines. With less than seventy unemployed Union members left and none rushing back to North America to challenge the legitimacy of the replacement players, NHL camps and pre-season games ran smoothly. It was a little surreal.
Labor laws got in the way in Canada. In the provinces of British Columbia and Quebec, it was illegal for replacement "workers" to take the jobs of union members. If changes weren't made the Canadiens announced they would play their games in Halifax and Hamilton. Likewise, the Canucks said they would simply move their operation to Seattle, the home of one of their owners. In Quebec, labor laws were immediately amended to exclude non-essential public services. Les Bleu, Blanc et Rouge would play only in Montreal. Though a few weeks of games were played in Seattle and Everett, the BC government made similar changes, with special sports industry exclusions eventually being written into their labor laws.
In September of 2005, a week before the regular season started, three important things happened:
First, a handful of PA members crossed the non-existent picket lines. If nothing else, this was the first sign that the dam was crumbling.
Second, a new, "temporary" player's association was hastily formed and it agreed to the owner's request for a $31 million salary cap. Other details included more ownership friendly rules regarding free agency and qualifying offers. The unrestricted free agency age remained at 31. A salary minimum of $12 million was set.
Third, the judge threw out the Union's antitrust case against the NHL. It was decided that the NHL had given the PA enough to work with given that there were six different CBA proposals. It was also pointed out that the Union didn't have a righteous leg to stand on considering 85% of its members were off playing in other leagues, many of which had salary caps systems. The ruling stunned the hockey world and the loyal NHLPA members waited to see what its leaders' next move was. Would there be an appeal?
However the floodgates had opened and each day in October saw two or three players crossing over and joining their teams. By the middle of the month, Bob Goodenow had resigned and the old Union fell apart like a house of cards. There would be the fallout of animosity between certain players polluting NHL locker rooms for years to come. Other players, out of spite for the Bettman and the owners, would vow to never play for the NHL again and would retire or finish their careers in Europe. And of course, of the large group that went to play in Europe in '04, many never returned.
There was a two-year grace period for teams to get under the $31 million cap. However, with players coming back to their teams, right away owners were trying to buy their way out of longer termed pre-lockout deals they had signed with high-priced players. Though buying out a huge contract was the lesser of two evils, it was still evil. Some franchises would need several years to recover from their efforts to get themselves under the cap.
After the first couple weeks of the season an ugly truth was revealed. Less than casual hockey fans that were there for the novelty had artificially swelled the NHL rinks. The truth was that season tickets sales were a quarter of what they had been pre-lockout. Many of the hard core fans were still bitter over the lost NHL season and had found other things to spend their leisure time and money on. For teams it was all about getting fans to buy tickets on a game to game basis. Ticket prices were slashed, layoffs occurred and team owners complained while GM's and team presidents worried about their bottom lines.
As the NHL season progressed, it became clear that the game's image had suffered irreparably in the United States. Hockey had fallen out of the big four. It was now eighth in TV ratings behind arena football, NASCAR, golf and Texas hold 'em.
For some franchises, the game attendance slowly recovered. In others, it slowly got worse. By the end of the season there were four teams that were in desperate trouble financially. The owners wanted no part of the new look NHL and wanted out. Two of them declared bankruptcy. With no chance of new owners stepping forward to purchase these franchises, the NHL was forced to buy these teams out. With revenue (and loss) sharing, it was in the best interest of the league and the other 26 owners to cull the herd. Three franchises were folded and the NHL would try to save the fourth and run it for the '06-'07 season. The value of these teams were much less than their pre-lockout worth, but this massive contraction cost the league most of what was leftover from its $300 million lockout war chest.
In '06-'07, two more teams would be in desperate financial trouble. The league itself was on thin ice financially. They were in a critical phase of their rebuilding. They couldn't afford the financial burden and public embarrassment of folding more teams. So in the spring of '07, pitchmen were hired and the search began for new owners. With the average worth of the NHL franchises at about 60% of what they had been only six months earlier, there was the possibility that buyers could be found.
A lot of noise was being made by hockey fans in Quebec City and Winnipeg, two cities that lost their teams in the mid 90's. They wanted to be NHL cities again and there were massive public rallies urging on potential ownership groups. By the summer, when the dust had settled, one more team had been contracted, while a Quebec City ownership group had bought the other. The Winnipeg ownership group bought the team that the NHL had been running.
Franchises were worth less, players made less money and teams had to work hard to bring fans back to the game. The result was ticket prices that were less than what they had been four years prior. Every now and then, however, an old NHL player would humbly return from his European exodus to rejoin the party ... and fans would rejoice at the site of a familiar face in a familiar jersey.
And, with exciting young superstars Eric Fehr, Alex Ovechkin, Gilbert Brule and Sidney Crosby leading the charge, the NHL's rebuilding process was well under way.